In 2026 many employers are experiencing difficult bargaining rounds, but what we are seeing is less about aggression and overt hostility, and more about parties becoming increasingly entrenched in their positions.

There is a greater willingness to hold firm, tolerate an extended bargaining process and play a longer strategic game. For employers, this changes the preparation required. It is no longer enough to develop a claims response, establish a mandate and prepare for the next bargaining meeting. Employers must consider the complete pathway to agreement—including what could happen if negotiations continue for considerably longer than anticipated.

Are unions arriving better prepared?

Across the bargaining matters we support, unions are not necessarily more comprehensively prepared than the employers sitting across from them.

However, there is one area in which unions are frequently proving highly effective: strategic communication. Their communication campaigns are shaping expectations early and by the time the parties meet at the bargaining table, employees have already have been presented with a clear narrative about what constitutes a reasonable outcome based on the union agenda. This gives employees greater conviction to hold out for the result they have been encouraged to expect. It also contributes to the entrenched positions and longer bargaining cycles employers are encountering.

Employers cannot afford to treat communication as something that happens after a union campaign begins. By that point, they are already responding to a narrative someone else has established. Employers must engage directly with employees early with a very clear, expectation-setting narrative.

Does a slowing economy moderate union expectations?

It might seem reasonable to assume that unions become more cautious when economic conditions deteriorate such as we have seen with the geopolitical crises across 2026. In practice, we see two very different responses.

Some unions use economic pressure—and particularly cost-of-living concerns—as a platform for pursuing stronger wages and conditions. This is most apparent in sectors with a history of more militant unionism, although we are also beginning to see examples within other industries areas such as retail.

In other negotiations, unions take a more pragmatic approach. They recognise that difficult economic conditions affect the employer as well as employees and that the organisation may have limited capacity to meet ambitious claims. These negotiations may ultimately result in the acceptance of more modest outcomes or interim deals.

There is no universal union response to a slowing economy. This unpredictability makes scenario planning especially important. You need to know your union well and the specific pressures unique to your business context. Employers cannot assume that generalised external economic pressures will make bargaining easier or naturally moderate employee expectations.

Intractable bargaining is changing the strategic landscape

The introduction of the intractable bargaining framework has added another important consideration to bargaining strategy.

Once bargaining has continued beyond nine months and relevant criteria have been met, an application can potentially be made for an intractable bargaining declaration. If the remaining issues cannot be resolved, the Fair Work Commission may ultimately determine the outcome.

This creates a different strategic environment. Bargaining representatives may see value in maintaining their positions and allowing negotiations to continue if they believe arbitration could produce a more favourable result. The data shows that a very clear trend that employees receive more favourable terms from a FWC determined outcome when compared to what the employer was offering prior to the intractable bargaining application. Hence, there is arguably a clear incentive to extend bargaining.

Employers must therefore prepare for the long-term game while retaining a clear strategy for reaching agreement before bargaining reaches that stage.

Preparation must extend beyond the bargaining table – How Adelhelm can assist you:

The bargaining environment has changed.

Employers are facing more entrenched positions, extended negotiation timeframes, sophisticated union communication campaigns and a legislative framework that can make the long-term direction of bargaining particularly significant.

Adelhelm Australia’s two-day workshop Enterprise Bargaining: The Essential Steps for Business Professionals is designed to help employers build the practical skills and strategic capability required for today’s bargaining environment.

The workshop explores how to prepare for negotiations, manage bargaining behaviour, develop an effective strategy, communicate with purpose and work towards an outcome that supports the organisation’s broader objectives.